Over the past few weeks i've been looking at some horse racing stats regarding the performance of favourites. One thing i've noticed is that whilst favourites win around 30% of their races, they are placed in around 60% of their races. So i'm considering changing my focus slightly from winning favourites to placed favourites. I need to research this more but have some ideas what to look for, for example any hurdle/jump races are out, as are 7 horse races as they only pay out for 1st and 2nd place on betfair. But interestingly, if a race has 8 runners and one drops out before the race betfair urrently still pay out on 3 places, so any of these races would be considered. My plan would also include using fixed stakes and I would not try to recoup any losses - as due to the small place payouts (usually 1.5 or less) doing this could easily destroy my bank. These are all just sketchy thoughts, but i'm happy to give this a go for a short while and see if it's profitable, if not then i'll revert to the original plan with a bit of extra knowledge to take with me on my journey.
As an aside, i'm happy that I wasn't following my backing favourites to win system tonight as it would have resulted in another losing day. My attempt at backing favourites to place brought me 1 winner and 2 losers (one of which was just a 7 horse - 2 to be placed - race which I backed by not paying attention). This brought me a loss of £3.00.
Also a quick system 2 update - today it has made me £1.71 bringing my total profit to £7.11 - more than double my original investment.
Best of luck with your betting!
Daily profit: -£3.00
Total profit: +£29.50
System 2 daily: +£1.71 / total: +£7.11
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
Greetings,
Hope this message finds you well.A number of years ago some professional bettors in the us did an exhaustive study on starting prices and they deemed that any selection at odds below 3/2 at post were better off bet to place (second in us parimutuel betting).
Just food for thought while you are organising your game plan.
Best of luck always Zappi
Hi There.
I've just started to read your blog and I find it quite interesting. I like the way you try out different betting techniques and staking plans. I'm going to be doing a similar thing for the next 12 months on Betfair also. Due to the fact that I'm giving up a fair amount of income to carry out the experiment, I'm having to use quite high stakes to make it worthwhile for me. Therefore, it is likely to be a rollercoaster........
Here's my blog
http://theexperiment-self-indulgentbullshit.blogspot.com/
Would be good if you can add that to your blog list. I'll add yours to mine as I think people who read mine would be interested in yours also.
Good luck.
Graeme
Post a Comment